CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS: 2022 EDITION
FIVE YEAR OUTLOOK
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Equity market returns in the past five years have outpaced even the most optimistic forecasts. But history has always shown mean reversion, and we expect subdued but positive returns in the next five years.
Download our Capital Market Assumptions Five-Year Outlook: 2022 Edition and get our long-term asset class return expectations and forecasts for the years ahead.
For Professional Investor Use Only
For Asia-Pacific markets, this information is directed to institutional, professional and wholesale clients or investors only and should not be relied upon by retail clients or investors.
This material is provided for informational purposes only.
Information is not intended to be and should not be construed an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to any transaction and should not be treated as legal advice, investment advice or tax advice.
Current prospective clients should under no circumstances rely upon this information as a substitute for obtaining specific legal or tax advice from their own professional legal or tax advisors.
Information is confidential and may not be duplicated in any form or disseminated without the prior consent of Northern Trust.
Northern Trust and its affiliates may have positions in and may effect transactions in, the markets, contracts and related investments described herein, which positions and transactions may be in addition to, or different from, those taken in connection with the investments described herein.
All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy, completeness, and interpretation cannot be guaranteed.
The information contained herein as of the date appearing in this material only and is subject to change without notice.
Forward-looking statements and assumptions are Northern Trust’s current estimates or expectations of future events or future results based upon proprietary research and should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a portfolio may achieve.
Actual results could differ materially from the results indicated by this information.
Capital Market Assumption (CMA) model expected returns do not show actual performance.
CMA model expected returns are based on IPC Forecasted Returns and reflect Northern Trust’s Investment Policy Committee’s (IPC) forward-looking annual capital market assumptions.
The Capital Market Assumptions Working Group (CMAWG), a subset of IPC members, publishes its assumptions as a white paper report.
Forecasted returns are for average annual returns (geometric basis).
Five-year forecasts are developed annually; most recent forecasts released 7/14/2018.
The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment strategy.
Model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns.
The model assumptions are passive only.
References to expected returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns an investor may achieve.
The assumptions, views, techniques, and estimates set out are provided for illustrative purposes only.
Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute CMAWG judgment and are subject to change without notice.
“Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error.
The ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which Northern Trust may have no or limited control.
Northern Trust Asset Management is composed of Northern Trust Investments, Inc.
Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K, NT Global Advisors Inc., 50 South Capital Advisors, LLC and investment personnel of The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited and The Northern Trust Company.
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